July 21, 2019

Danger lurks for stock managers chained to crowded trades

By Lu Wang It’s an old saw of professional money management that nobody gets fired for buying IBM. But in 2019, the perils of groupthink may be creating their own kind of career risk for stock investors. So says Bank of America, highlighting dangers created when droves of funds flock to the same stocks regardless of cost. In one extreme example tied to the vogue for momentum trading, shares with the fastest price appreciation over the past 12 months are trading at valuations that are almost 25 per cent higher than normal, the bank’s data showed. While risk aversion and herding are nothing new, the extent to which active funds are willing to pay up for popular stocks is at extreme levels. Three mantras seem to dominate their thinking, say BofA strategists led by Savita Subramanian. “Buy what’s working,” “don’t be different,” and “valuation doesn’t matter.” Normally, you want to buy low and sell high. Lately investors seem to have it backwards. Cheap stocks are being almost totally ..
July 21, 2019

Trade setup for Monday: Choppy day ahead; keep exposure at modest level

NEW DELHI: In a disappointing session, the domestic stock market took a deeper hit on Friday as it slipped below crucial support levels and ended the day in the red. The market saw a positive opening for the day, but the index failed to maintain its opening gains. After trading positive for a very brief period, Nifty pared all the gains, slipped into the negative zone and continued to see sustained weakness all through the day. The headline index finally ended the day, losing 177.65 points (-1.53%). Nifty closed well below its 100-DMA level of 11,567 on Friday. This was crucial support that the index breached on the downside. In the event of any pullback, the 100-DMA is expected to provide a very stiff resistance. The upper band for the index has shifted lower to the 11,560-11,600 zone, and this zone will halt all the upsides that the market may see going ahead. There are chances that Nifty will see a tepid start to the week on Monday. There are possibilities of a soft opening, b..
July 21, 2019

Tweet Buster: Knock-knock, multibaggers! And how to bring josh back on Dalal Street

NEW DELHI: Dalal Street showed clear signs of being in the beat grip all through this past week. The state of the broader market continued to be fragile and there has been growing acceptance of the poor state of the Indian market. Decisions regarding higher surcharge on the super-rich and lack of any economic stimulus in the Budget resulted in the bear hammering of domestic stocks. Top Street investor Shankar Sharma says the market has been in its worst state in last 18 months and only a handful of Nifty stocks have been able to mask the true condition. Sharma said the current scenario is worse than the one witnessed during the 2008 financial crisis. The handful of Nifty stocks is masking the ugly truth that the Indian market, now and over the last 18 months, has… https://t.co/wBKbF0QWoJ — Shankar Sharma (@1shankarsharma) 1563520712000 Sharma also said anybody with the option of investing globally has no case for investing in India, given the ancient companies, economic slowdo..
July 21, 2019

Strong rupee, lower GDP likely to tame inflation in India to 4.1% in this fiscal: ADB

NEW DELHI: Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered the inflation forecast for India during the current financial year to 4.1 per cent, on the back of gain in rupee and cut in the country's GDP projection. India will be the main driver to lower the inflation for the South Asian region, ADB said in a supplement to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019. South Asia's inflation forecast for 2019, was revised down from 4.7 per cent to 4.5 per cent, mainly reflecting lowered forecasts for India, the ADO supplement said. The ADO supplement has lowered India's GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points from April outlook to 7 per cent in 2019-20. "In light of a smaller-than-expected uptick in food inflation, a strengthening Indian rupee since October 2018, and a lower GDP growth forecast, this Supplement revises down inflation forecasts for India by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1 per cent in FY2019 (fiscal ending in March 2020) and 4.4 per cent in FY2020 (ending March 2021),"..
July 21, 2019

IL&FS case: Sebi widens probe into role of rating agencies

New Delhi: Market regulator Sebi has expanded its probe into the role of five credit rating agencies after a forensic audit mandated by the new board of crisis-ridden IL&FS flagged serious lapses and their possible complicity with the former top brass of the group in giving top ratings despite weak financials. While CEOs of two rating agencies have already been forced to go on leave pending completion of the probe on the advice of Sebi, officials said the regulator is now looking into possible systemic lapses at all five rating agencies and also into the role of multiple people suspected to have intentionally manipulated the rating procedures. The special audit conducted by Grant Thornton found that its review of emails exchanged by the former key executives of Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services (IL&FS) group and the top officials of rating agencies showed that they were aware of the serious liquidity concerns and weakening financials of the group. "However, various strat..
July 20, 2019

Axis Bank to raise Rs 18,000 crore

Private sector lender Axis Bank said Saturday its board has approved raising up to Rs 18,000 crore through an issue of equity shares, depository receipts or convertible securities. The Board of Directors of the bank approved the proposal in this regard in the meeting held Saturday, the bank said in a regulatory filing. "The Board... has approved raising of funds aggregating up to Rs 18,000 crore," Axis Bank said in a regulatory filing. The bank is one of the worst-affected private lenders after the Reserve Bank's asset quality review, which led to a huge increase in bad loans over past three years. The bank's provisioning for bad loans reduced to Rs 2,711 crore in the fourth quarter of 2018-19, from Rs 7,179 crore in the corresponding period last fiscal, according to regulatory filings. The bank said that the fund will be raised through issue of equity shares/depository receipts and/or any other instruments or securities representing either equity shares and/or convertibl..
July 20, 2019

23% jump in NII & 60% surge in provisions: What do HDFC Bank’s numbers say?

MUMBAI: HDFC Bank on Saturday posted a 21 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in standalone net profit at Rs 5,568.16 crore for the quarter ended June 2019. The bank's profit figure stood at Rs 4,601.44 crore in the same quarter last year. Here are the top takeaways from the private sector lender's June quarter results: Strong NII: The net interest income (interest earned less interest expended) for the June quarter grew by 22.9 per cent to Rs 13,294.30 crore on YoY basis, driven by asset growth and a rise of 4.3 per cent in core net interest margin for the quarter. Other income rises too: Other income (non-interest revenue) at Rs 4,970.3 crore was 27.2 per cent of the net revenues for the quarter ended June 30. It grew by 30.2 per cent over Rs 3,818.1 crore reported in the corresponding quarter a year ago. The four components of other income were -- fees & commissions of Rs 3,551.6 crore, foreign exchange and derivatives revenue of Rs 576.7 crore, gain on-revaluation/sale ..
July 20, 2019

HDFC Bank Q1 net jumps 21% YoY to Rs 5,568 crore; provisions surge 60% YoY

HDFC Bank on Saturday posted a 21 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in standalone net profit at Rs 5,568.16 crore for the quarter ended June 2019. The private sector lender had posted a net profit of Rs 4,601.44 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Net interest income advanced 22.94 per cent YoY to Rs 13,294.25 crore in Q1FY20 over Rs 10,813.57 crore in Q1FY19. Provisions and contingencies increased 60 per cent YoY. They rose 38.35 per cent QoQ to Rs 2,613.66 crore during the quarter under review. Standalone operating profit before provision and contingencies increased 28.90 per cent YoY to Rs 11,147.24 crore for the quarter ended June 2019 against Rs 86,47.75 crore in the same period last year. Asset quality of the lender deteriorated marginally with percentage of gross non-performing assets (NPA) increasing to 1.40 per cent for the quarter ended June 2019 against 1.36 per cent in the preceding quarter ended March 2019. Percentage of net NPA inched higher to 0.43 per cen..
July 20, 2019

The gold rush heats up as sub-zero yields spread

By Eddie van der Walt and Ranjeetha Pakiam Gold, once mocked for its lack of yield and practical use, offers something the growing pile of negative-yielding bonds doesn’t-- inflation protection. Plus, it makes a great doorstop. As holders of promissory notes issued by sovereigns and companies watch the real value of their savings drain away amid central bankers’ efforts to kick-start growth, the allure of one of the oldest investment assets has become ever stronger. These five charts show just how popular gold has become -- and how closely it’s linked to the downward spiral in yields. The Breakthrough For five years, resistance above $1,350 an ounce was too much for bullion to overcome. That changed in June, as it became clear the Federal Reserve was heading for a round of interest-rate cuts. Spot prices touched $1,453.09 on Friday, the highest level since May 2013 as global factory output slows and the market debates whether Chairman Jerome Powell will cut rates by as much as 50 b..

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